2009 NCAA Indoor Championships: PREVIEW

By Bryan Green






Bryan ran cross country and track and field for UCLA, as well for Japanese ekiden teams while living in Japan. He now pretends to be a runner (mostly on weekends) and a writer (mostly after running). Check out his popular running blog Optimal Training and his distance running lenses at Buraian's Lensography . He welcomes your feedback via comment or email at buraian@lifeofburaian.com

 A couple weeks ago I wrote a distance preview  for the USATF Indoor Championships, and included predictions for all the distance races.  As always happens, half the top runners didn't show up after all and the predictions bombed like a shot of whiskey in a glass of Guinness.  That is to say, they were fun to make, but the morning after it was a little painful to think about them.

Now it's time for the NCAA Indoor Championships.  Generally, everyone who can run in the championships does run, but German Fernandez  is proving to be the exception as he focuses on Junior World Cross.  Everyone else is there, though, and in looking at the fields, I'm struck by one fact: the quality and quantity of fast times being put up across the NCAA this year is staggering. 

As for quality, we've seen many major collegiate records go down this indoor season.  On the women's side, Jenny Barringer broke the women's mile and 5000m records, running 4:25.91 and 15:01.70, respectively.  Sally Kipyego ran 8:48.77 for 3000m and 4:27.19, the second fastest time ever in the mile.  And Tennessee's women's DMR team ran a smokin' 10:56.40, which I believe is an American record.  On the men's side, German Fernandez broke the indoor mile record (3:55.02) and the junior American record for 3000m (7:47.97, #2 NCAA).  Galen Rupp broke the American collegiate record for 3000m (7:44.69) and the collegiate record for 5000m (13:18.12, in a race that saw Samuel Chelanga also break the previous record, running 13:19.79).  We haven't seen an attempt at the 800m records this year, but with the solid fields present on both sides, could this be the year?

Then there's the quantity of fast times being run.  I took a look at the qualifying times for all events and saw an amazing statistic.  In field events, there were an average of 5.7 automatic qualifiers per event.  In sprints, there were only 4.0 autos, on average.  In the distance events, however, there were on average 9.2 auto qualifying marks per event, with an amazing 27 auto marks in the DMRs (which is the best indication for overall middle-distance strength).  And another 24 marks were within one second of the qualifiers.  And I didn't count anyone not entered in a race, like Fernandez and Rupp in the mile.  This is very much the result of so many races being run at the University of Washington and Notre Dame, which have large, fast tracks beneficial to distance runners.  But it's also likely the result of a general rise in the quality of distance running in the NCAA.

So the real question is, will this year's NCAA meet live up to the expectations set during the season?  I think it could, but that will largely depend on the answers to the following questions:

No Sally vs Jenny?  Outside of the 800m, two women are far ahead of the rest of the NCAA in the distances competition in the mile, 3000m, and 5000m.  Those women are Sally Kipyego and Jenny Barringer.  With apologies to Sarah Bowman and Brie Felnagle in the mile, this is just a fact.  Maybe someone can contend in a sit-and-kick race, but if it goes out hard, and you know it would with both of them in there, there are only two women who can win it.  Unfortunately, Kipyego is running the mile and 5000m, and Barringer is running the 3000m.  We won't get the epic battle, so it remains to be seen if one or both of these women will do something amazing on their own.  Hint hint, Jenny.

WWFD?  If you see bracelets around NCAAs that say WWFD, you know they stand for "What Would Fernandez Do?"  That's the ultimate unknown of this year's NCAA Indoors.  The kid broke the NCAA indoor record (and junior world record) with a 3:55.02 solo mile, and has the #2 3000m time of the year (7:47.97).  But he's elected to focus on the World Cross Country meet and forego the chance at NCAA immortality.  I don't have any problem with that decision--he's thinking bigger and that's good--but this meet will always have an asterisk in the minds of many, because we can only imagine what Fernandez would have done.

Rupp or Chelanga?   It seems pretty obvious over the past few months that the answer should be Rupp.  He beat Chelanga at NCAA Cross, then again while breaking the indoor American record at 5000m.  They should both do battle fresh in the 5000m, and they are remarkably close when fresh...  Will Rupp be able to hold him off for a third time in a row?  And will he be able to bounce back for the 3000m and defeat a stacked field?  Chelanga may not beat Rupp in the individual match-up, but his presence might just affect the outcome of the next key question...

Distance points: Oregon or Arkansas?   The Ducks and the Razorbacks are distance powerhouses, and their battle for points in the distances will be an interesting meet within the meet.  Heck, it could win the meet for one of these two team favorites.  The Ducks have two Olympians in Rupp and Wheating, as well as a team with depth in every event.  The Razorbacks look to be the underdogs on paper, but that may be misleading, as PRs don't always translate to points in a championship meet.  With Ulrey, Forrest, McClary and the fastest DMR time coming in, they should give the Ducks all they can handle.   

Wheating or the field?  Andrew Wheating was the phenom of 2008, so it makes sense that he's now the favorite in 2009.  He is entering the 800m with the fastest qualifying time (1:47.03), the best kick, the best 1500m ability, and the highest expectations.  The best chance for an upset would have to be Jacob Hernandez, the reigning outdoor NCAA champion.  He held off a steamrolling Wheating in the final straight to take that title, but since that time, Wheating hasn't even looked vulnerable. 

New DMR records?  Tennessee's women's team ran a qualifying time of 10:56.40, just 2 seconds off Villanova's 10:54.31, set in 1988.  With the next closest team a whopping 8.5 seconds back, the Lady Volunteers will have to do it themselves if they're to break the record, but they've got as good a team as has ever been assembled for the event.  On the men's side, Arkansas (9:28.35) comes in about 2 seconds off the record set by Texas last year (9:25.97).  Oregon and Cal are one second behind them.  Neither looks likely to break the record, but at least in the case of Arkansas and Oregon, one could argue they haven't run their fastest team yet.  It's going to be one fast, tight battle, and that's the type of race that results in records.

Here are some quick breakdowns of the distance races, along with some predictions:

Women's 800m

Top Returner:  LaTavia Thomas, LSU (1st place)
Fastest Qualifier:  Phoebe Wright, Tennessee (2:02.39)
Favorite:  Geena Gall, Michigan (2008 NCAA Outdoor champ, #2 qualifying time)
Other Notables:  Heather Dorniden, Minnesota (2006 indoor champ)
Darkhorse:  Caitlin Bailey, Boston College (looked good winning the IC4A champs)
Did you know?  There are three former national champions in the field, including last year's indoor (Thomas) and outdoor (Gall) champions, and the 2006 indoor champion (Dorniden).

Prediction:  A very tight race, I really have no idea.  I'll go with Wright, Dorniden, Bailey, Gall, Thomas.  Or maybe Thomas, Gall, Bailey, Dorniden, Wright...

Men's 800m

Top Returner:  Tyler Mulder, Northern Iowa (1st place 2008)
Fastest Qualifier:   Andrew Wheating, Oregon (1:47.03)
Favorite:  Andrew Wheating, Oregon
Other Notables:  Jacob Hernandez, Texas (2008 outdoor champ)
Darkhorse:  Mason McHenry, Arizona State (this frosh has the #2 qualifying time coming into the meet...the next Wheating?), Tevan Everett, Texas (#3 1:47.82)
Did you know?  Jacob Hernandez was the pre-race favorite in 2008, but was DQ'd for stepping inside the rail.

Prediction:  McHenry or Everett, two of the faster qualifiers, will push the pace at 400m but it will be Hernandez and Wheating battling for the win.  Wheating will be too strong and will take the victory by about .2 seconds.

Women's Mile

Top Returner:   Sarah Bowman, Tennessee (3rd place)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sally Kipyego, Texas Tech (4:27.19)
Favorite:  Sally Kipyego, Texas Tech
Other Notables:  Brie Felnagle, North Carolina (2007 indoor champ)
Darkhorse:  Keri Bland, West Virginia (#4 qualifier 4:34.78 - 18th NCAA XC)
Did you know?  As fast as Kipyego is, she's been shown to be vulnerable at the mile distance, both by Barringer at Big-12s and by Hannah England, who won NCAA Outdoors last year.  But you'd better be ready to run fast and still have a finish.

Prediction:  Arguably the best women's race at NCAAs, it pits the top runner in the country (Kipyego) against two of the better milers in recent history (Bowman and Felnagle).  The pace will go out slow as all the runners try to measure out Kipyego, and when she goes, the top group will go with her.  Felnagle will have a little more left in her tank on the last lap and will sneak ahead for her 2nd indoor victory.  Kipyego, Bland, and Bowman will follow. 

Men's Mile

Top Returner:  A.J. Acosta, Oregon (3rd place)
Fastest Qualifier:   Shane Knoll, Notre Dame (3:57.36) -- German Fernandez ran 3:55.02, but is not entered
Favorite:  Dorian Ulrey, Arkansas (2nd 2008 NCAA outdoors, #2 qualifier 3:57.60)
Other Notables:  Hayden McClaren, Lee Emanuel, and Matt Centrowitz all come in with sub 3:58 PRs
Darkhorse:  David McCarthy, Providence (this freshman ran the #3 qualifier--3:57.75--on a 200m track)
Did you know?  Providence has two 3:57 milers, but no DMR team entered.  Are there no Irish 800m runners?  Really?

Prediction:  I've got this feeling that this race will turn out different from what everyone expects.  Emanuel, McClaren, Ulrey, Centrowitz, Knoll, McCarthy.  Those are my picks.  (Considering changing them for the 47th time...)

Women's 3000m

Top Returner:  Susan Kuijken, Florida State (1st place)
Fastest Qualifier:   Jenny Barringer, Colorado (8:53.88)
Favorite:  Jenny Barringer, Colorado (she's having arguably the best indoor season ever)
Other Notables:  Laurynne Chetelat (Stanford), Sarah Bowman (Tennessee), Gwen Jorgensen (Wisconsin), Alex Kosinski (Oregon), Lauren Centrowitz (Stanford) -- this field is stacked!
Darkhorse:  Frances Koons, Villanova (with a 9:01.02 PR, the last qualifier in the race might just be one of the best bets for an upset)
Track Trivia Game:  Match the 3000m PR with the athlete (9 athletes are within 3.5 seconds of each other!):

9:08.15   Alex Kosinski
9:10.99   Mel Lawrence
9:11.62   Bridget Franek
9:11.24   Laurynne Chetelat
9:08.44   Sarah Bowman
9:11.31   Gwen Jorgensen
9:10.12   Lauren Centrowitz
9:08.50   Angela Bizzarri
9:10.04   Nicole Blood

Prediction:  Barringer puts on a show (8:46).  Jorgenson, Chetelat, Kuijken all sub-9.  Koons, Bizzarri, Bowman, Centrowitz, and Kosinski all sub-9:05.  But honestly, after looking at that list up there, do you have any confidence in a prediction outside of Barringer?  Me neither.

Men's 3000m

Top Returner:  Patrick Smyth, Notre Dame (13th place)
Fastest Qualifier:   Galen Rupp, Oregon (7:44.69)
Favorite:  Galen Rupp, Oregon
Other Notables:  Michael Coe (California), Dorian Ulrey and Shawn Forrest (Arkansas)
Darkhorse:  Matt Centrowitz, Oregon (he may be doing triple duty with the mile and DMR, but he's a 3:57 miler)
Did you know?  Michael Coe was the Nike Indoor Nationals two-mile champion and the Nike Outdoor Nationals mile champion while in high school.  He'll also be anchoring the California Bears' #3 ranked DMR team.

Prediction:  So many athletes are doing double and triple duty by the time they run the 3000m, that predictions are a bit hazardous.  With that said, I'll go with Coe, Ulrey, Rupp.  The time may not be fast (7:55ish), but the last mile could be as fast as 4:02.  And I don't think Rupp can hang with that after a tough 5000m race.

Women's 5000m

Top Returner: Sally Kipyego, Texas Tech (1st place)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sally Kipyego, Texas Tech (15:54.36 -- Jenny Barringer ran a solo 15:01.70 collegiate record but is not entered in the race)
Favorite:  Sally Kipyego, Texas Tech 
Other Notables:  Lindsey Scherf, Oregon (former NCAA 10k record holder),
Darkhorse:  Gwen Jorgensen, Wisconsin (#2 qualifying time 15:55.63)
Did you know?  Jorgensen was a three-time letter winner for the UW swimming team.  Alan Webb was a competitive swimmer before focusing on running full-time.  Ergo facto, Gwen Jorgensen will soon break the American record in the mile.  I love logic.

Prediction:  Picking Kipyego is like picking the matador at a bull-fight.  Well I'm going with the bull.  I think Gwen Jorgensen can take Kipyego.  She'll need a Sikes-esque effort, but she can do it.  Jorgensen, Kipyego, Scherf a distant 3rd.  Winning time in high 15:20s.

Men's 5000m

Top Returner:  Tyson David, Alabama (9th place)
Fastest Qualifier:   Galen Rupp, Oregon (13:18.12)
Favorite:  Galen Rupp, Oregon 
Other Notables:  Samuel Chelanga, Liberty (13:19.79), Shawn Forrest (#4 13:37.77, 2nd NCAA 10000m 2008)
Darkhorse:  Chris Derrick, Stanford (I bet he surprises some people)
Did you know?  After running 3:57.86 last weekend, Galen Rupp is now the official Oregon school record holder for the indoor mile.  He knocked .06 seconds off the previous mark, set by Matt Centrowitz 3 weeks earlier. 

Prediction:  Rupp, Chelanga, Derrick, Forrest, David.  Rupp runs 13:26 off a big negative split.  Derrick breaks the American junior record for 5k, running 13:35.

Women's Distance Medley Relay

Top Returner: Tennessee (1st place)
Fastest Qualifier:  Tennessee (10:56.35)
Favorite:  Tennessee
Other Notables:  none
Darkhorse:  none, ok maybe North Carolina (#6 11:06.54)
Did you know?  Tennessee returns their entire team from last year's national championship winning relay.  But one of those runners--Brittany Sheffey--likely won't be competing.  Despite leading off in the 1200m as a freshman for the Lady Vols, Brittany will likely be watching from the sidelines as superstar recruit Chanelle Price (2:01.61 hs) has taken her spot on the squad.

Prediction:  Um, Tennessee.  In a new collegiate record 10:53.2!  Followed by North Carolina, West Virginia, BYU.

Men's Distance Medley Relay

Top Returner:  Texas (1st place, but they won't have Leonel Manzano)
Fastest Qualifier:   Arkansas (9:28.35)
Favorite:   Oregon (9:29.39, without Centrowitz)
Other Notables: Cal, Virgina and BYU all went sub-9:30
Darkhorse:  Texas (they have only the #10 time coming in, but if Everett runs and Morse is in his 2nd place 2008 indoor mile form, you never know)
Did you know?  There were 15 automatic qualifiers from one last chance meet at Notre Dame.  8 teams qualified from the first heat, and 7 from the second.  This is certainly too many to run in one race, but the DMR is not a race that is ever run in rounds.  Can you say roller-derby track and field style?  The over-under for athletes falling in an 18 team DMR on a 200m track has to be 2.5.  I'm taking the over.

Prediction:  Chaos.  Total absolute glorious chaos.  One of the two favorites--Arkansas and Oregon--will get boxed in by guys running in lane 3 and dig themselves a hole they can't get out of.  A darkhorse favorite with a big kick, someone like Cal or Texas, will sneak up and steal the title.  My picks: Cal, Oregon, Texas, Arkansas.