German Fernandez and World Cross

By Bryan Green

 I don't make any claims to be a track and field historian, but I can't think of any precedent for the decision recently made by German Fernandez.  A freshman, arguably a favorite to win either the mile or 3000m at the NCAA Indoor Championships, opts not to run them to focus on the World Cross Country Championships taking place two weeks later.  Who would do that?

I was surprised, to tell the truth, that Fernandez opted not to run.  It really shouldn't have been a surprise given that his coach, Dave Smith, had been saying they were going to do that for some time.  But I was sure they'd bow to the pressure of national expectations and enter him anyway.  It wasn't until the heat sheets were posted and Fernandez wasn't on them that I realized that maybe, just maybe, Fernandez was serious about being the best runner in the world.

Or he was just afraid of losing in a championship setting.  (Message boards can be crazy places.)

I've read a number of message boards at a number of sites and they tend to vary between the following extremes: A) Fernandez is a world-class runner who wants to compete against the best in a world championship so this was a great decision (some also add that NCAA Indoors doesn't matter in the big picture); and B) Fernandez is a bad championship racer who is selfishly putting himself before his team (and oh yeah he's ducking Galen Rupp ).  I don't expect to change anyone's mind with this column, but I do think it's worth putting their decision to skip NCAAs into perspective.  If for no other reason than because, quite frankly, it had to be a terribly difficult decision to make. 

Let's review the history of his running prior to the indoor season for a second.  We know he did some amazing stuff in high school, breaking some long-standing cross country, 3200m and two-mile records.  He finished 3rd at Footlocker, but won a USATF Junior Cross Country title as a senior, before finishing 25th at Junior Worlds.  Fast forward to NCAA Cross Country, where he easily handled all of his races, treating most of them as time trials or team runs.  At the NCAA Championships, his team went out slowly and worked their way through the pack up to the second group (trailing only Rupp and Samuel Chelanga) before Fernandez hurt his leg and dropped out.

Conspiracy theories abound about that injury, but there is no evidence to support it being anything but legitimate.  He recovered quickly--"A little too quickly?" suggest the conspiracists--and at that point, a decision was made to focus on the Junior World Cross Country Championships during the winter.  He would run a few indoor races, but Junior World Cross was the goal. 

Then, without even a warning, he went crazy go nuts on everyone. 

Then he opened up his season with a 3:56.50 mile, breaking a junior world record and outkicking the nation's top returner and pre-season mile favorite, Dorian Ulrey .  Then he dominated USATF Junior Cross Country, putting a 19 second gap on Chris Derrick, a 13:44 5k runner, in the last 2k.  Then the following week he ran a scintillating 7:47.97 3000m, defeating Michael Coe , one of the better middle-distance talents in the country.  Then he doubled at Big-12s, running an NCAA record 3:55.02 mile and a 7:57 3000m less than three hours apart, both entirely solo.  

Then he decided to skip NCAAs.  Say what?  Like I said, crazy go nuts.  Second only to the message boards that erupted about the decision:

Why not just run the 3000m at NCAAs?  Why double at Big-12s if you are worried about over-racing?  Would the mile really take that much out of him?  What about his team?  Two weeks is enough to recover, isn't it?  What's better: winning an NCAA title or "rubbing elbows" with the Africans?  Why not just be a pro if he's going to choose his races like one?  He's just ducking Galen Rupp, isn't he?

These questions (accusations?) range from valid to vapid.  Most of them are the product of disappointed fans who feel they missed out on one of the great potential NCAA races ever.  I certainly sympathize with them.  Other questions are grounded in the reality of our past experience: with few exceptions, the best collegiate runners have always prioritized the best collegiate races, i.e. the NCAA Championships. 

But most importantly, those questions assume that German's expected performance at World Cross is constrained by the limits of those Americans who have competed before him.  You know, the best he can hope to do is match Dathan Ritzenhein's 3rd place, which was "a fluke" because the race was run in swamp-like conditions.  (Great performances by white people against Africans often need qualifiers.)  All Fernandez can realistically hope for would be a 10th place finish that no one but diehards will remember a few years from now.

Well I disagree with that.  I love his decision, for three reasons:

First, a runner who wants to be the best in the world needs to be able to make extraordinary sacrifices.  These range from the day-to-day lifestyle sacrifices you make to the short-term opportunities you forego in the course of pursuing your long-term goals.  The ability to say no to the NCAA Indoors shows a willingness to make those sacrifices.  It had to kill him to sit at home and watch Lee Emanuel win the mile with a 4:00.33, and Galen Rupp win the 3000m in 7:48.94.  But just because you can race doesn't mean you should, and that appears to be a lesson German has learned.

Joe Franklin, who probably woke up the morning draped in a Union Jack and humming "God Save the Queen".  (I know I would have.)  On the flip side, passing up those opportunities, especially when it's literally a judgment call and not forced by an injury or illness, is as difficult for a committed coach as it is the athlete.  But rather than have German focus on being the big fish in the small pond, he's attempting to guide German through the big pond, where it's eat or be eaten.  Not because it benefits him, but because that's where German wants--and needs--to be.

Third, I don't believe German's choice to run World Cross is just about "swimming with the big fish".  That's why Chris Derrick and Luke Puskedra are running it.  To get their fins wet.  To gain experience.  But not German.  German is going to Amman to win it.  He won't say it publicly because it would seem absurd (A non-African?!  Blasphemy!) and besides, it's always better to under-promise and over-deliver.  Smith and Fernandez are getting good at that.

Take this interview with Dave Smith , where when pressed for details about German's goals for the 5k later this year, Smith mentions Rupp's 13:37 American junior record.  Puh-lease.  Maybe last year that was German's goal, but not this year.  He's got to be aiming for something along the lines of 13:10.  Am I saying he'll run that?  No, I highly doubt it.  Just like I highly doubt he'll actually win in Amman.  But what do I know?  Certainly not what Smith and German know.  If I had to guess, I'd say that what they both know deep down is that German really hasn't even been tested yet.  That he's barely scratching the surface.  And that people in Amman might just be in for a surprise.

And that's the real reason he didn't run even the 3000m at NCAAs.  When they made the decision, he was a few weeks from attempting to win a race that no non-African has been able to win for 25+ years.  It wasn't the time to add distraction or uncertainty into the mix.  Not even for some NCAA hardware. 

The odds of his making history in Amman are steep enough as it is.  He may have to go 22:30 for 8k to win it.  That just seems unreasonable.  But then again, who wouldn't have said that about any other of his performances this year? 




Bryan ran cross country and track and field for UCLA, as well for Japanese ekiden teams while living in Japan. He now pretends to be a runner (mostly on weekends) and a writer (mostly after running). Check out his popular running blog Optimal Training and his distance running lenses at Buraian's Lensography . He welcomes your feedback via comment or email at buraian@lifeofburaian.com

Second, Dave Smith isn't pushing him to do what's best for Dave Smith.  Smith is a college coach who has never won a team championship nor had an athlete win a national championship, at least not while at Oklahoma State.  He's giving up a great opportunity, too.  It's incredibly fun to be a coach when your athlete wins a major championship.  Just ask Lee Emanuel's coach,