2009 NCAA Recap

Few meets can rival the NCAA Championships for drama, intrigue, and upsets.  It combines elite, world-leading performances with tight team competitions in which the difference between 6th and 8th can make or break a team.  And this year, the

men's competition came down to the final event, the 4x400m relay, before it was decided. 

Amazingly, before the 4x400m race went off, there was potential for a 4-way tie for the men's team title.  Oregon of the distance and multis had 46 points and no team in the race.  Florida State of the long sprints needed a win and had the favorite to do it.  Florida and Texas A&M of the sprints and jumps needed to finish better than 3rd or 4th, respectively, to win, which was exactly what they were projected to do!  The team projected to get 2nd?  Baylor, perennial champions and known for always coming up big.

Florida State won the race as expected, snapping Baylor's 40+ win streak in the event.  Florida took 4th, as expected.  Both tied Oregon's 46 points with their efforts.  But to everyone's surprise, Texas A&M held off Baylor for 2nd place and won the team title by 2 points over the other three teams, finishing with 48.  Probably the tightest team competition I've ever seen.  And when you add to that Texas A&M's win on the women's side, it was truly a remarkable day for that program.

In reverse order from last week's NCAA Preview - Over/Unders column, here are the lines we set last week and the results:

1a. Oregon's Total Team Points (M & W) +/- 106.5
1b. Oregon's Total Individual NCAA Champions (M & W) +/- 6.5
My picks: Under & Under.  Actual points and champions: 89 and 6!

This points line may have been a bit high, but there's no getting around the fact that Oregon had an off day relative to expectations.  Projected to score more than 60 points on the men's side, they scored just 46.  The women competed pretty much up to expectations, scoring 43, but just lacked the firepower of Texas A&M, which scored 50. 

Texas A&M stole the show, scoring 98 points between their men's and women's programs.  And they did it with only two individual champions (4x100m and 200m).  They did have an impressive four scorers in the triple jump, however, which ultimately won them the meet.
 
Interesting to note:  Oregon was arguably the 3rd best team overall.  Florida State and Oregon showed up with the same approach: big guns and no depth.  They each scored a total of 86 points across programs, but remarkably, Florida State had seven individual titles to Oregon's six!  Amazing!

2. Margin of Victory for Jenny Barringer in the Steeplechase +/- 21 seconds
My pick: Under.  Actual margin of victory: about 15 seconds!

Again, this line was probably a bit high.  Jenny's

margin of victory over Nicole Bush was about the same as the difference in their season bests coming in.  It's amazing that she could run a world-leading time and a meet record, and I feel a little bit of a let-down.  I was positive she'd break the AR.  I guess windy, hot, humid weather can take it's toll on Jenny, too.  Whodathunkit?

While we're on the steeplechase, this is a great time to mention that Kyle Perry's 8:29 victory in the men's steeplechase was a huge breakthrough and probably makes him a contender at the US Championships coming up.  As long as he doesn't run a stinker like his 4th place at the West Regionals.  It also answers the age-old question: what animal would be the most successful at running the steeplechase?  Answer: the giraffe.

Interesting to note:  Mel Lawrence of Washington ran a big PR to finish a close 3rd.  Her time of 9:40.98 was about a 12 second personal best.  Just a freshman, she could be on the cusp of contending for a spot on the US team in the near future.

3. Men's 1500m Final Winning Time +/- 3:38.50
My pick: Under.  Actual winning time: 3:39.00

On the surface, the race looked like how I figured it would go.  German Fernandez took the lead from the gun and led wire-to-wire.  But looks can be deceiving.  While I expected he'd set a blistering pace, he really just ran right around 4-minute pace.  Then he held them all off in the sprint, which is exactly the type of victory most of us never thought he would win.  To outkick a field of studly kickers after leading the entire way...well, the kid ran a special race.

Interesting to note: German didn't have to beat any of the Oregon stars in the final.  He did dispatch Centrowitz in the prelim, but that's not saying much when Centro runs 3:53.  I think Fernandez would have handled Rupp if he tripled, but Wheating would have been interesting.  Given that Wheating's calf bothered him in the 800m, however, it's hard to imagine anyone from Oregon stopping him yesterday.  Of all the runners I watched during the meet, however, Fernandez, Rupp, and Wheating are the only three who seem to be able to finish big without ever losing form.  They just look different on the last lap.

4. Number of Mideast Region Qualifiers in Women's 800m Final +/- 5.5
My pick: Over.  Actual number of qualifiers: 4!

A couple of the Mideast Region's big guns didn't make it into the final, as freshman Chanelle Price faded in the semi and my sleeper, Molly Beckwith was DQ'd (I don't think she would have qualified anyway).  The

region still got the win, however, as Geena Gall ran wire-to-wire for the victory in an impressive 2:00.80.

Sadly, CBS didn't show this race at all, opting instead to show a retrospective interview piece on former Arkansas Razorback coach John McDonnell.  The three pieces they did were good--the others focused on Jenny Barringer and Galen Rupp--but it was an appallingly bad call to show them over the actual races.  As I wrote in my Marathon Coverage Manifesto, use a split-screen!  Americans may love drama and feel-good stories, but when we tune-in to see track, we really do want to see track.

Interesting to note: The men's 800m race was an instant classic, with Wheating barely nipping Tevan Everett in the last 10 meters or so.  Overtaking the leader in the final 10 meters is pretty much the equivalent of sinking a last-second shot in a basketball game.  Just when victory is in hand, it gets snatched away in an improbably athletic feat.  Wheating has ice in his veins.  There is no quit in him.  And on that note, I guess CBS should be acknowledged for showing the right 800m race.  I'd be infinitely more pissed if they'd not shown this race and I'd only seen a replay.  (Note to CBS: I did not just approve of your coverage.)

5.  Number of NCAA Meet Records Broken +/- 3.5
My pick: Over.  Actual number of records broken: 3!

The three that went down were the women's steeple (Jenny Barringer, 9:25.54), women's heptathlon (Brianna Thiesen, 6086 points), and women's 4x100m (Texas A&M, 42.36).  Barringer didn't break her AR as I expected, but given the wind, humidity, and generally sucky weather, her world-leading performance is still remarkable. 

The women's triple jump actually saw FSU's Kimberly Williams go almost one foot over the old NCAA meet record, but it was a wind-aided jump (+2.1), so I don't believe it will count for the record.  The men's 10k may not have broken the meet record, but it was a spectacular race, with Forrest and Chelanga pushing the pace early.  Similarly, the men's javelin, women's high jump, and women's pole vault were all won within a hair's breadth of a record.  It could have easily been more.

Interesting to note:  No meet records were set by men.  Studly men, where you at?

6.  Number of Distance Points Scored by Freshmen +/- 43.5
My pick: Over.  Actual distance points scored: 32!

I think this line was too high to begin with, because I included Laurynne Chetelat in my initial calculations and she didn't compete.  That said, even though the number of points scored was pretty standard, the way they were earned was dramatic and remarkable. 

German Fernandez took home the 1500m title (discussed above), Chris Derrick ran a 4:04 last 1600m to finish 3rd in the 5000m (behind Rupp and McNeill, two uber-studs), Mel Lawrence ran her big PR, and Lacey Cramer ran a tough 800m race for 4th.

Interesting to note: Chanelle Price and Christine Babcock, two record-setting high schoolers last year, qualified for the meet but didn't score.  Not only that, they were beaten by other freshmen (Cramer and Infeld) who did score!  I hope Jordan Hasay fans saw this and took notice.  Scoring as a freshman in the distances is possible, but it takes a special season by a special runner.

7.  Total Sprint Points by West Region Teams (M & W) +/- 49.5
My pick: Under.  Actual points scored: 66 !

I definitely let myself get caught up in the anti-hype that surrounded the West sprinters after their mediocre year.  But they outperformed expectations, and should be given props for that.  Then again, they still accounted for only 12% of all sprint points, so work remains to be done.  A special call-out to Jeshua Anderson and Nicole Leach in the 400m hurdles, who each won their second titles, and Ahmad Rashad in the 100m and Charonda Williams in the 200m, who each finished a surprising 2nd in their events. 

The real story in the sprints was Florida State on the men's side, and the Texas schools on the women's.  FSU's Borlee twins went 1-4 in the 400m, Charles Clark won the 200m, and they dominated the 4x400m in 2:59.99.  Just freshmen, the Borlees could dominate the long sprints for years to come.  The Texas schools--Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, UTEP--put up 88 points in the sprints, 33% more than the entire West Region!  Texas got a huge performance from Alexandria Anderson, who won the 100m, took 3rd in the 200m, and ran a huge 3rd leg to seal the victory in the 4x400m race.  Texas A&M broke the meet record in the 4x100m (42.36), with Aggie Porsche Lucas winning the 200m and taking 4th in the 100m.

Interesting to note: No points were scored by any athletes from Texas--men or women--in the 400m hurdles.  Texas long hurdlers, where you at?

8. Number of Aussie Points Scored +/- 19.5
My pick: Under.  Actual number of points scored: 27!

Boy did I underestimate that Aussie Power.  Forrest and McNeill ran superior, tough races only to lose to the most dominant male collegiate distance runner ever.  When Rupp is running

low 27s and low 13s later this year, the way they battled to the end will look even better.  Big props to Forrest for taking down Chelanga, as well. 

In the middle distances, Gibney and Foster surprised (well, surprised me at least) to score in the 1500m and 800m, respectively.  Gibney ran the fastest 3rd lap in the field to get into contention, and then fought hard to a 5th place finish.  Foster made huge leaps in the prelims, and though he struggled to 8th in the final, his time of 1:47.81 would have been a PR prior to the meet.  Lastly, in the field events, Wardhaugh put up a manly 3rd place in the hammer. 

Interesting to note: All the points were scored by men.  Aussie women, where you at?

9.  Percent of Scorers from non-BCS Schools +/- 18%
My pick: Over.  Total % of non-BCS scorers: 22%!

One of the great things about the NCAA Regionals system is that it forces everyone to earn their way into the meet.  It removes some--but not all--of the emphasis on time trial meets during the early season and forces schools to have their athletes ready to compete at the end of the year.  As a result, the system becomes more equitable for small schools.

This year, 22% of the scorers across the board were from non-BCS schools.  I didn't tally the number of participants, which might be a better indicator of system equity, but I think this is an interesting number to track all the same.  Small schools not only got a large percent of athletes into the meet, they comprised a solid 1/5 of the scorers.  And they weren't just snagging 7th and 8th place finishes.  By my count, there were five individual champions from non-BCS schools.

Interesting to note: There were two events in which non-BCS athletes took more places than BCS athletes.  Those events were the men's pole vault and women's triple jump.  I'm not sure what sets those schools apart, but I just can't resist saying this: BCS schools, where you at?

Bonus: Over/Under on Number of Picks Anyone Would Get Right +/- 4.5
My pick for my performance: Over.  Actual number of picks I got right: 4!

I didn't include this in the original preview article, but this was the line I agreed on for how good my lines were set.  And I thought I'd pick more of them correctly than otherwise--of course!  Well, sadly, I did not.  When you set the line and then fail to win, you need to question your calling as a bookmaker...

Congrats to Texas A&M, the many individual winners, and all the great athletes who participated in this year's NCAA meet.  It was one of the best in memory and I'm already excited for next year!

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Bryan ran cross country and track and field for UCLA, as well for Japanese ekiden teams while living in Japan. He now pretends to be a runner (mostly on weekends) and a writer (mostly after running). Check out his popular running blog Optimal Training and his distance running lenses at Buraian's Lensography . He welcomes your feedback via comment or email at buraian@lifeofburaian.com